The schedule for the women's races:
Friday 16.00: 500m
Friday 16.45: 3000m
Saturday 12.50: 1500m
Sunday 13.00: 5000m
assuming the weather conditions and the organizers do their job. The women's main aim is to
finish among the top-14, as that qualifies for the World Championship in Moscow in February.
The Norwegian participants
Hege Bøkko
PR: 39,05 - 1.57,91 - 4.12,81 - 7.42,10SB: 40,79 - 1.59,21 - 4.14,56 - 7.42,10
outdoor lowland PR: 40,97 - 2.05,05 - 4.32,42 - 8.09,51
Hege is part of Team CBA and has had quite a few slow sprints this season, but seemed to crack something during the race in Tønsberg, where she won in 40,97 - a very good time outdoors. With that kind of form she might contend for a medal on the 500m. Hege has also appeared to do well on the 3000 m; she skated a lowland PR in Astana with 4.14,56.
This is Hege's 4th European Championship; she has been 13th (just missing out on 5k) twice. The SB list suggests she actually has a chance of finishing top-12 on the 3,000 m, which coupled with good sprints would guarantee qualification for the final distance; otherwise, she will have to place ahead of strong sprinters such as Lobysheva and Erbanová to qualify for the last distance.
Mari Hemmer
PR: 40,51 - 1.57,52 - 4.08,72 - 7.01,02
SB: 42,66 - 2.02,51 - 4.22,42 - 7.35,92
outdoor lowland PR: 42,41 - 2.07,55 - 4.28,23 - 7.37,81
Mari had asthma issues during many races in the early season, but had a promising NM; she won the 3,000 in a strong outdoor time (4.29,8) and was 1,7 behind Hege on the 1500. She's also had some pretty ok 1500 races, nothing like her 11th place at WCh distances last season, but ok. Nevertheless, it seems like her only chance of qualification to the last distance is to skate a very good 3,000 m - her slow 500 m means she is unlikely to be top-12 overall after three distances. Mari was 6th last year, but that was a perfect storm of good conditions and good form; though she likes skating outdoors, I'll be surprised if she qualifies for the 5km.
Ida Njåtun
PR: 39,36 - 1.56,25 - 4.06,45 - 7.09,41
SB: 40,28 - 1.58,05 - 4.08,92 - n/a
outdoor-lowland PR: 41,95 - 2.06,11 - 4.30,09 - 7.42,36
Ida had an ok November where she established herself in the worldtop; she was four timse in the top ten, backing up last season where she had one podium place and otherwise a bit variable performances. In December she caught the whooping cough, and also fell on the opening distance of the NM allround. However, some promising test races in Inzell suggest she is on the right track again; she doesn't really need to be in top form to make the top 14, but a good 3km will be the key to qualification. A repeat of last year's 8th place would be nice, though the 5km will be a tough test of will for her.
The 500 m
Pair 3: Luiza Zlotkowska (POL) vs Mari Hemmer
Similar to Mari, Zlotkowska hasn't really shown form this year. She has very few official results and was many seconds behind Czerwonka at the Polish championships. She was a very good 9th at EK 2011, setting a PR in the 4-race combination. In something like normal form Zlotkowska is probably something around 0,5-1 seconds better on the distance.
Pair 5: Diane Valkenburg (NED) vs Hege Bøkko
Valkenburg has a slower PR but a faster SB than Hege; she's only been under 40 once in her career. She is 27 years old and has qualified for her 3rd successive European Championship. She should be 0,2-0,3 secs slower on the 100m so will hopefully allow Hege to creep up on her from the outer lane, using her back as a windshield.
Pair 9: Tatyana Mikhaylova (BLR) vs Hege Bøkko
Mikhaylova is a semi-competent allrounder who has 9th in the Moscow B group (very low participation) as her best result. She was 15th on the European Championship in Collalbo last year, when Ida beat her by about 1 second in Collalbo, and something similar could happen here - hopefully Mikhaylova gets out of the way when Ida storms out of the outer.
The 3,000 m
Pair 2: Sara Bak (DEN) vs Mari Hemmer
Sara Bak now represents the flat, adorable country, as Cathrine Grage has turned to track cycling and coaching. Bak has the Danish record on the two shortest distances, but can not be called a sprinter; her 500 PR is 41,9 from Calgary.
Bak has been in the World Cup on 3000m three times and Hemmer has been there twice; it's currently 1-1 so it'd be nice to sort that head-to-head out. Bak has improved her sprints this season but hasn't skated a 3000 in top conditions.
It'll be hard to 'set the pace' but Mari has skated a lot outdoors and it may be an advantage to skate early if rain ruins the ice.
Pair 5: Bente Kraus (GER) vs Hege Bøkko
Hege is always optimistic when skating the 3k; she usually opens hard and hopes it'll work all the way. The World Cup races in the former Soviet Union (22nd, B-group 5th) indicated some improvement; she has never scored points on the 3k before. In Chelyabinsk, for example, she skated the first km at roughly the same pace as Sábliková, who won.
Kraus is a skater from Berlin (like Claudia Pechstein) and is a slow stayer of the Beckert type. It is her second European Championship and she was 18th last year - I don't really see any drastic improvement in her results this year, but she did have a fairly decent test race in Erfurt last week (4.17 indoors). Either way she should be 50-60 metres back after the first three laps and then we'll see how Hege copes.
Pair 11: Linda de Vries (NED) vs Ida Njåtun
This is a nice and interesting pair which could be important for the total classification. Linda de Vries (23) from Smilde in Drenthe has established herself in the international class this year after making her debut last season, and her first season in the Marianne Timmer-coached Team Liga has been very good. She is a pretty true allrounder, quite decent on every distance except maybe the shortest sprints. However, though she finished 4th at the NK Allround last year (without Wüst), this is her first allround championship. Her only international championship was the 5km in Inzell last year, where she finished 11th.
She skated six World Cup races this autumn, with 4th on the 3000 and 5000 as the best. She beat Ida in four of those races (Ida didn't start on the 5000) and is thus the favourite; however in Astana it was only 0,6 seconds between them, and they had pretty equal splits for the whole race. De Vries was not too promising in the Dutch qualification, either, skating the 3km in 4.11.
Good luck to all the girls!
